Brian Reed: Eliza — before we get into this, I need to say, the story that broke here is constructed almost entirely from things people said when they didn't have to say anything. Which makes it genuinely hard to read.
Eliza Ward: That's a careful way to put it. What's the actual sequence?
Brian Reed: Stephen Jones — Cowboys EVP — goes on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas, says the franchise 'wouldn't rule out' selling a minority stake, given the NFL now allows private equity. Calvin Watkins at the Dallas Morning News follows up. Cuban emails back that Harbinger — his PE fund — would be 'open to it.' Jerry Jones tells Watkins he'd do it for Cuban specifically, because of, quote, 'the man.' That's the story.
Eliza Ward: Hold on — Stephen floated it on radio, and then Jerry responded separately to the press. Those aren't the same conversation. We don't actually know if they coordinated that.
Brian Reed: That's the part that sits uncomfortably, yeah. And layered under all of it is — the franchise is worth thirteen billion dollars, valued in December 2025, most valuable sports franchise globally. So even a three percent stake, the minimum the NFL's policy requires, is nearly four hundred million dollars. That's not a casual email response.
Eliza Ward: Right — but the words 'open to it' are free. They cost Jerry Jones nothing. What would cost something is a formal step — a meeting, a framework, anything that isn't hedged language in an email.
Brian Reed: So what are we actually trying to work out — is this real signal or just what two powerful people say when they want to avoid a bad headline?
Eliza Ward: That's the question. And the answer might be: both, depending on which Jones you're listening to.
Brian Reed: But here's where I keep getting stuck — even if both Joneses are completely aligned, even if Cuban's ready to wire the money, none of that matters yet. Because Harbinger isn't on the list.
Eliza Ward: Right — and that's the buried fact. Think of it like a liquor license. The bar owner can shake your hand, say the place is yours — but if you don't have the license, the doors don't open. That's Harbinger right now.
Brian Reed: So the entire public conversation may be happening on a timeline that doesn't exist yet.
Eliza Ward: That's — yeah, exactly. The NFL voted 31–1 in August 2024 to allow this. Seven firms have cleared approval since then. Five actual transactions have closed. The framework is real, it's functioning — but Harbinger isn't among those seven.
Brian Reed: Wait — five deals have actually closed?
Eliza Ward: Five. League-wide, since 2024. So this isn't theoretical infrastructure anymore — deals are getting done. Cuban's fund just, I mean, it hasn't even entered that pipeline as far as any reporting confirms.
Brian Reed: And nobody's answered whether Harbinger's approval is a formality — like, weeks — or whether it's eighteen months of league deliberation.
Eliza Ward: No reporting touches that. Which means — wait, actually that's the signal to watch. Not what Jerry Jones said to a reporter. Whether Harbinger files anything.
Brian Reed: And each deal still needs a 75% supermajority owner vote on top of that. So even a certified fund isn't automatic — what would it take for Cuban's application to even surface publicly?
Eliza Ward: That 75% vote is real friction — but I want to back up, because the take that's circulating right now is that the Jones family is sending a coordinated signal. That they planned this. And I don't think that holds.
Brian Reed: Name the take.
Eliza Ward: Stephen Jones goes on 105.3 The Fan — a local Dallas radio show — and floats minority stake openness. Jerry then tells a Dallas Morning News reporter he'd be open to Cuban specifically. And people read that as: coordinated trial balloon, father and son playing good cop and better cop. But wait — those are two separate conversations with two separate outlets. There's no reporting that says Jerry knew Stephen was about to go on radio.
Brian Reed: Right — and Jerry separately told reporters the team is 'not for sale.' That statement is just sitting there, unresolved, next to 'I'm open to Cuban.'
Eliza Ward: Okay, wait — technically those can both be true. 'Not for sale' means no majority deal. A minority stake isn't selling the team. So the statements aren't contradictory on their face.
Brian Reed: Sure, technically. But neither Jones has actually clarified that tension publicly. If they're coordinated, you'd expect one of them to say 'what Stephen meant was a minority stake, obviously the team isn't for sale.' Nobody has said that. Which means either they haven't had that internal conversation, or one of them is offering cover for the other's trial balloon.
Eliza Ward: No, I think that's — yeah, that's the cleaner read. Stephen tests the market on local radio. Jerry gets asked about it and says something friendly. That's not alignment, that's damage control that looks like alignment.
Brian Reed: And here's the other thing everyone's getting wrong about Cuban specifically. People keep treating this as a Dallas homecoming — the guy who won the 2011 NBA championship with the Mavericks, coming back to the city. But Cuban sold majority control of the Mavericks to Miriam Adelson and Patrick Dumont. He's not the home-team owner returning. He's a PE fund manager looking for a trophy asset. That's a completely different posture going into a negotiation.
Eliza Ward: Which actually matters when you think about what a 3-to-10% non-voting stake even gets him — and what it costs. That's the part we should get into.
Brian Reed: And that's the number that keeps stopping me. The Cowboys are valued at thirteen billion. A three percent floor — the minimum the NFL requires — is roughly three hundred ninety million. Ten percent is one point three billion. For no governance voice. No voting rights. No operational say whatsoever.
Eliza Ward: None. The cap is ten percent per PE firm and Cuban gets nothing that looks like control.
Brian Reed: So what does he actually get?
Eliza Ward: Upside on the most valuable sports franchise on earth — and the 49ers-Seahawks deal proved buyers will pay at this scale. Six point one billion in that transaction. PE money is not flinching at these numbers. But for Cuban specifically, there's — wait, this is the part Jerry Jones actually named. He didn't say he was open to Harbinger the fund. He said 'the man.' Cuban personally. That's a different kind of endorsement.
Brian Reed: Right — but does sentiment survive the league's approval process? Like, Jerry calling Cuban 'the man' doesn't get Harbinger certified.
Eliza Ward: No, and that's — okay, picture a Harbinger compliance officer on a Tuesday afternoon in October 2026, pulling together governance documents for an NFL certification review. That specific moment has to happen before any handshake between Cuban and Jones means anything legally. Jerry's personal warmth toward Cuban is completely irrelevant to that officer's checklist.
Brian Reed: And if that process drags six, twelve months—
Eliza Ward: The 'open to it' window may close before a term sheet exists. Right. That's the watch signal — not what either Jones said publicly. Whether Harbinger actually files for certification.
Brian Reed: And then, even certified, a 75% supermajority owner vote. Thirty-one other owners have to weigh in on Cuban specifically.
Eliza Ward: Which is — honestly, that's the part I can't resolve. Whether the other 31 owners treat Cuban differently than they'd treat a faceless fund with no public profile. He won a championship. He's known. But he also sold his team. That's a complicated CV to bring into a room where your vote depends on guys who still have theirs.
Brian Reed: And there's no formal agreement on record. No confirmed meeting. No term sheet. That's — I mean, I keep trying to find the thing that would tell me this is real momentum and it's just not there yet. Maybe it gets there. Maybe Harbinger files and everything starts moving. But right now the honest version is: we can't tell the difference between a real negotiation and two wealthy men being diplomatically polite to a reporter.
Eliza Ward: One of them does something that costs them something. That's when we'll know. Until then — yeah.
